Wednesday, December 29, 2010

The year that was…the year to come.

It’s that time of year again. Honestly, I’ve never quite understood the “New Years” holiday. Is anything really going to be any different Saturday than it was on Friday? I had no discipline up to this point, but tomorrow…tomorrow I will magically be able to diet, or quit smoking, or workout more…or whatever? It’s a new year after all…

I kid, of course. Logical people certainly recognize that the New Years holiday is purely symbolic. But symbolism can be a very powerful thing. In this case, it’s that time when people pause to look back at what was (even though it was just yesterday) and, in turn, what is yet to come (eh…tomorrow). So, in the interest of symbolism, I thought I’d take a look back at the year that was in the geek world and a little bit at what next year might hold:


Sleep...who needs sleep?



2010 gave us the biggest entertainment release in history, and it was a video game (Call of Duty Black Ops). Not a first, mind you. The previous record holder was also a video game (Call of Duty MW2). Way to go Activision, eh? You’ve come a long way since Pitfall!. Which was, in a word, awesome. Still my favorite game ever for the Atari 2600 and yes, my Geekyness knows no bounds. But, I digress.

Jedi mind tricks


Apple had some colossal issues with the iPhone 4 release this year (a hardware issue with the antenna. Oh yeah, and that little problem with the signal level algorithm that mistakenly said you had more "bars" than you really do) and somehow, in true Apple fashion, still ended up coming out smelling like a rose. Steve "Pied Piper" Jobs played a tune and the followers...well, followed. Don't get me wrong, the iPhone 4 is still the best phone on the market in my opinion. But it could have, and should have been better and it's up to the people that use them the most to demand it be better vs. just taking Apple's word for it that "everything's ok. Nothing to see here."

The rise of Android


2010 also saw the possibility of some real competitors to the iPhone. Android phones finally came up to speed, and depending on the fuzzy numbers you look at, actually caught up to the iPhone. Not to be outdone, at the end of the year Microsoft released its new phone OS, appropriately named Windows Phone 7 (Wanna have some fun...call it Windows Mobile, or even PocketPC. They hate that!). The Android based phones gained huge popularity very quickly thanks to their availability from multiple hardware vendors across virtually all available cell network providers, unlike the iPhone which is only available from Apple, of course, and (at least for now) only available on the much maligned AT&T network. Looking forward, availability of the iPhone on other networks (a Verizon version of the iPhone is expected in 2011) would seemingly widen the gap, but the Windows Phone is no joke and is not going anywhere. Microsoft has put too much time, effort, and piles and piles of money into it to just fade away into the night. One thing we know about the software giant, they are more than willing to dump obscene amounts of money into a pit and light it on fire just to stay relevant in a market and in some cases just to save face (i.e. XBOX360 and Zune). But that remains to be seen...for both companies actually.


4G, the new "Waldo"


Continuing in the cell world, 2010 gave us the first entry into 4G. The search is on. Find it and you get speeds you can only dream of. That's what were told right. By the way, not to get too off track again, but is T-Mobile really stooping to low with those commercials to mock the iPhone and AT&T while championing a network that isn't even theirs? Anyway, obviously the big problem with 4G is limited availability. It does seem to be growing. I was able to experience 4G briefly while waiting for a flight in Nashville a few weeks ago and it’s fast. Real fast. It’s also quite a draw on battery power and I wonder how fast it will be once it’s widely used by millions of smart phone users. 3G seemed fast not very long ago. Now, not as much.


To the Cloud!


Cloud computing made huge inroads this year as well. With Microsoft Office 365, Windows Live, improvements in Google Apps and a variety of improved or new “SaaS” (Software as a Service) offerings, the world is inexorably moving to cloud based computing. Not to mention things like Facebook, Twitter, and the blogosphere (hey, wait a minute...).

Google’s Android and Chrome (there's my token mention of Chrome so all 3 of you users can just pipe down!) systems are directly, and constantly, linked to the "cloud" at their core. Cloud computing is not new this year, of course. It’s been around a long time. iTunes, Google Apps, Web based email like Hotmail and Gmail and other services have been around for years now. It just seems like next year and especially probably 2012, we will be discussing less the “web based” versions of apps or services we use. They will just be “services that we use” and then SOME will have “localized versions”. There are a lot of benefits (immediate offsite backup, virtually unlimited mobility) and some definite concerns (privacy, control, putting the responsibility of your mission critical files in the hands of a complete stranger and trusting them to maintain them). As you can probably tell, I’m not sure how big a fan I am of this idea…but it is the way of the world. Like it or not.

And on the 8th day, the lord created...iPad (insert dramatic music here)


Last, but certainly not least, Apple unleashed the iPad and in the process revolutionized an already existing, and failing, computer market with the tablet. Instead of making a tablet form of a computer as Windows had done in the past (anyone remember WinXP Tablet Edition?), they instead expanded on their smart phone interface of the enormously successful iPhone. This provided an new instant-on, extremely aesthetically pleasing, and overall joy to use environment the world had never seen. We've all used our respective smart phones to do do things on the go that we used to do with our computers. With the iPad we now could do it without squinting. In spite of some, at least what I believe to be, glaring miscues and omissions in this format that would seemingly be easy to include, it was hugely successful and has since spawned off also rans (at least at this point) like the Samsung Galaxy Tab (based on the Google Android OS) which has some nice features (like, *gasp* a front and rear facing camera and GPS...those animals!) but some deficiencies as well due to the fact that it truly is just an Android phone blown up to a 7" screen and the Android OS not really being optimized for tablet use (although they say that is coming shortly). Some reviews have also said that it has some of the same battery shortcomings that have surrounded the Android OS and it's multi-tasking format. There have also been some mythical touch screen “tablets” based on Windows 7. I say “mythical” because although I have seen pictures and eBay listings for them, I’ve yet to see one in real life, know anyone that has seen one in real life, or heard any reputable review of one. “Rodents of Unusual Size? I don’t think they exist.”


There is some rumbling that Microsoft will show a version of a tablet, NOT based on the new Windows Phone platform but rather on a new version of the Windows desktop OS, at the upcoming 2011 CES show. It’s also rumored that said tablet will not actually be released until 2012, so it is presumably based on the upcoming Windows 8. In order to be successful, however, it has to follow the same instant on, easy to navigate format that Apple uses. PCs today look much like the Apple 2 originally. Windows looks much like the original MacOS. I expect tablets to look like the iPad going forward. Much like the PC and associated operating systems, Microsoft took the idea that Apple really originated and expanded on it and made it more accessible to everyone. The iPad has only scratched the surface of what is possible. For Microsoft to succeed in the tablet world (where it failed miserably in the digital music world) it will have to do the same thing again. It will be interesting to see if they can. Interesting indeed…


I think eventually we'll look back on 2010 as not so much groundbreaking, but rather more innovative. No new ground was really broken. No new foundations laid. This year was more of a realization of technologies and new ideas that were started already, just unrealized. That takes nothing away from the benefits of the innovation that came this year. 2011 looks, to me, to be really an extension of that. Furthering the roads that have been built this year and setting up what might be a banner year in 2012.

That's the real excitement of this time of year exciting. Sure, we look at what might have been...but even more so what could be.

Happy New Year everyone! See you on the flip side.

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